Here’s an interesting turn of events. Just a few weeks ago Canaccord Genuity analyst Mike Walkley slashed his sales estimates for the BlackBerry Z10 by nearly 85%.
Walkley initially had Z10 sales of nearly 2 million. Though, his checks prompted him to slash the estimates down to only 300,000.
We had conducted our own checks and found the estimates to be way off base. Walkley has now admitted he went too far in cutting the estimates.
“Given our store surveys indicated modest Z10 sales in the U.K. and Canada with limited initial inventory levels, we admittedly reduced our February quarter sell-in estimates too low for the first month of the Z10 launch,” Walkley said in a research note today.
“With the Z10 launching in additional markets the last weeks of February, we have increased our February quarter BB10 smartphone sell-in estimate from 300K to 800K units,” he said.
Though, Walkley is still hardly a proponent for BlackBerry. His reasoning is due to carrier support, with Sprint opting to only offer the Q10 and T-Mobile only offering the Z10.
“Our follow-up surveys have indicated steady but modest sales levels for the Z10. With new BB10 smartphones launching in the U.S. only in mid-March or later at subsidized prices no better than competing high-end Apple/Samsung smartphones, combined with our expectations for the Galaxy S IV to launch at a similar time frame in the U.S. market, we anticipate BlackBerry will struggle to reclaim high-end smartphone market share,” he said.
What do you think of the new 800,000 sales estimate figure? Is that about right or too high or too low? Sound off in the comments.