RIM has $12 Fair Value on International Market Adoption and Growing Subscriber Base
Research In Motion has had an otherwise saddening story for the last few years of its history. RIM’s stock has fallen nearly 85% in just a few short years after the Storm debacle.
Due to the increased competitiveness of the mobile marketplace and RIM’s lackluster response to adopt, it has caused for depressed valuations on its stock. However, RIM’s recent quarter reaffirmed the company is far from dead.
RIM managed to post better-than-expected results as the company aggressively launched BB7 handsets and found new subscribers in emerging markets, taking the overall BB subscriber base to 80 million.
Additionally, RIM managed to hold on to its cash balance as many of its cost-cutting initiatives in the CORE program took hold, contrary to many expectations.
Beating the analysts expectations caused RIM’s stock to surge 15% after the earnings call. Seeking Alpha sees far more value in the stock coming from its huge subscriber base and its unique value propositions in push email and security. They put a price estimate of $12 on RIM’s stock, which is about 50% ahead of the current market price. Here’s why:
80 Million Subscriber Base Provides Value
The struggling smartphone maker has seen its BB unit sales fall year over year for the last five consecutive quarters. Last quarter saw RIM ship only 7.4 million BBs, a precipitous drop of 30% year over year and about 5% quarter over quarter. Device revenues for the first half of this fiscal year are already down over 50% over the same period last year. However, despite the revenue drop, RIM continues to add new subscribers every quarter, with many coming from international markets.
RIM currently has over 80 million subscribers globally. With BB nowhere near its peaks of customer appeal, RIM will be primarily looking to get this installed base to upgrade to BB10 initially. At the same time, RIM will bank on the push email and BBM service revenues from existing subscribers to tide over this difficult transition period. CEO Thorsten Heins has said the company is looking to leverage the security strength of BB services that governments and enterprises around the world have come to rely on.
We believe the BB services, which include push email and BBM, are unique value propositions for RIM’s customers, and the company is doing the right thing by realigning its focus on this segment. Our estimates show that this is RIM’s most valuable division currently, accounting for almost 45% of our price estimate for the stock.
BBM Still Relevant in Many Markets
But a carrier push to reduce fees as well as a loss of more enterprise customers to rival platforms, as the bring-your-own-device (BYOD) movement becomes more popular, could hinder RIM’s strategic moves to boost revenues from the services division. In addition, the new BB10 devices will not be supported by the existing enterprise servers (BES), potentially making the BES 10 upgrade process costlier and complicated thereby reducing RIM’s chances of pushing BB10 into the enterprise base.
However, the emerging markets of Asia-Pacific, South Africa, Venezuela and Indonesia, where the BB brand has not yet been hit as badly as in the developed markets, could be RIM’s dark horse. These regions continue to see a good number of new subscribers adopt BBs due to the continuing popularity of the BBM service in these markets. Much still depends on BB10′s reception in the market, and we do not really expect RIM to ever reach the heights it once commanded in the smartphone market. But if RIM does manage to make BB10 a strong smartphone OS, it could still remain relevant in the market and continue to generate cash from its enterprise and retail niche.