Research in Motion has been
A Jeffco survey indicates carriers have a far more positive view of BlackBerry 10 than Misek expected. Though, Misek gives BlackBerry 10 a 20%-30% chance of success. The Ax in RIMM, according to Notable Calls, Misek’s last upgrade of the stock presaged a one-month 40% move. Shares are currently up in premarket.
Notable Calls also lists what they feel could be three possible scenarios for RIM:
Scenario #1 (20%): Despite better prospects Jeffco still sees only a 20%-30% of BB10 success as consumer demand will be the ultimate determinate; however, they see BB10 success (which would also increase the potential for licensing) leading to a ~$43 stock in 12 months. Scenario 2 (20%): RIM could be sold if BB10 fails; however, this will likely be a takeunder at $5-$7. Scenario 3 (60%): BB10 fails, no acquisition, and continued cash burn leads the stock toward $0. The weighted probability of these scenarios equals firm’s new $10 target.
Nevertheless, it is great to see that the most bearish analyst for RIM is beginning to see it may have a chance. Perhaps we’ll soon see other bearish analysts determine the same, as the word continues to spread that more carriers are impressed with BlackBerry 10.