Research in Motion has been upgraded to Hold from Sell by Jefferies’ Peter Misek. The Jefferies’ analyst has lately been over bearish of RIM. However, Misek now says RIMM could be a $43 stock in a year if things go well.
A Jeffco survey indicates carriers have a far more positive view of BlackBerry 10 than Misek expected. Though, Misek gives BlackBerry 10 a 20%-30% chance of success. The Ax in RIMM, according to Notable Calls, Misek’s last upgrade of the stock presaged a one-month 40% move. Shares are currently up in premarket.
Notable Calls also lists what they feel could be three possible scenarios for RIM:
Scenario #1 (20%): Despite better prospects Jeffco still sees only a 20%-30% of BB10 success as consumer demand will be the ultimate determinate; however, they see BB10 success (which would also increase the potential for licensing) leading to a ~$43 stock in 12 months. Scenario 2 (20%): RIM could be sold if BB10 fails; however, this will likely be a takeunder at $5-$7. Scenario 3 (60%): BB10 fails, no acquisition, and continued cash burn leads the stock toward $0. The weighted probability of these scenarios equals firm’s new $10 target.
Nevertheless, it is great to see that the most bearish analyst for RIM is beginning to see it may have a chance. Perhaps we’ll soon see other bearish analysts determine the same, as the word continues to spread that more carriers are impressed with BlackBerry 10.