The Passport is a successfully launched BlackBerry, selling over 200,000 in the opening weekend. However, analyst from Canadian bank CIBC is worried about sales data, prompting him to cut shipments forecast.

“Early indications are that Passport demand is ‘alright’ relative to modest expectations, with Google trends showing peak search interest similar to that of BB10’s #2 device,” analyst Todd Coupland said to clients. “Shipments, however, are being held back by supply constraints for unique screens and keyboards that will limit any upside in fiscal Q3.”

Their research alleges demand for BBOS 7 and Z30 devices is quickly declining. Coupland has cut his fiscal Q3 shipment forecast to 1.6 million units from 2.3 million, and a reduction to 1.5 million from 2.5 million for Q4.

BlackBerry CEO, John Chen, expects an annual device shipment of 10 million and returned profitability by FY 2016. Coupland doesn’t expect that will be achieved until FY 2017.

“Its position in hardware devices still needs to improve,” Coupland said, revealing his shipment forecast of 6.8 million devices in FY 2016 and 2017. “In our view, BlackBerry’s turnaround has a way to go,” he added.

Is the CIBC analyst’s assessment correct? Sound off in the comments with your take on Coupland’s research note.